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V-Lab

Estee Lauder Cos Inc/The GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 27th, 2026

1 Day

39.19%

decreased by 2.39%

1 Week

39.17%

decreased by 2.41%

1 Month

39.07%

decreased by 2.51%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 10:40 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

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2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of Estee Lauder Cos Inc/The GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 17, 1995 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 90 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.77 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.5771
2.86***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0621
39.90***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9923
379.48***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.7713
15.82***

Persistence:

0.992

Half-life:

90 days