V-Lab
Estee Lauder Cos Inc/The GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 27th, 2026
1 Day
39.19%
decreased by 2.39%
1 Week
39.17%
decreased by 2.41%
1 Month
39.07%
decreased by 2.51%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 10:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 17, 1995 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 90 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.77 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.5771 | 2.86*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0621 | 39.90*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9923 | 379.48*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.7713 | 15.82*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
90 days
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