V-Lab
Cyanotech Corp Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
134.81%
decreased by 2.40%
1 Week
149.31%
increased by 12.10%
1 Month
163.26%
increased by 26.05%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 22, 2026 at 10:35 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 22, 1991 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3817 | 4.08*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1668 | 8.08*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5785 | 12.22*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.0903 | -1.72* |
| γ2 | 0.2155 | 3.08*** |
| γ3 | -0.2079 | -4.80*** |
| γ4 | 0.0737 | 1.71* |
| γ5 | 0.0707 | 1.50 |
| γ6 | -0.1619 | -3.25*** |
| γ7 | 0.2196 | 4.32*** |
| γ8 | -0.2081 | -4.15*** |
| γ9 | 0.2222 | 4.67*** |
| γ10 | -0.2274 | -6.45*** |
Persistence:
0.745
Half-life:
2 days
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