V-Lab
Cyanotech Corp Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026
1 Day
162.97%
increased by 2.90%
1 Week
171.69%
increased by 11.62%
1 Month
180.30%
increased by 20.23%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 09:08 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 22, 1991 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3796 | 4.16*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1627 | 7.98*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5781 | 12.00*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.0899 | -1.75* |
| γ2 | 0.2157 | 3.15*** |
| γ3 | -0.2104 | -4.95*** |
| γ4 | 0.0787 | 1.86* |
| γ5 | 0.0648 | 1.40 |
| γ6 | -0.1565 | -3.15*** |
| γ7 | 0.2163 | 4.26*** |
| γ8 | -0.2069 | -4.17*** |
| γ9 | 0.2211 | 4.75*** |
| γ10 | -0.2270 | -6.59*** |
Persistence:
0.741
Half-life:
2 days
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