V-Lab
Ambica Agarb & Aroma Ind Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
32.04%
increased by 1.11%
1 Week
32.76%
increased by 1.83%
1 Month
34.39%
increased by 3.46%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 08:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 4, 2011 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 8 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0379 | 6.10*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1307 | 3.87*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7826 | 12.33*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | 0.0419 | 0.65 |
| γ2 | -0.1320 | -1.24 |
| γ3 | 0.1511 | 2.20** |
Persistence:
0.913
Half-life:
8 days
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