V-Lab
Goodtech ASA Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
40.01%
decreased by 1.08%
1 Week
40.17%
decreased by 0.92%
1 Month
40.26%
decreased by 0.83%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 12:04 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 3, 2020 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.0320 | 5.09*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0847 | 2.58*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4938 | 2.69*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | 2.3868 | 3.52*** |
| γ2 | -2.6616 | -2.50** |
| γ3 | 0.8692 | 1.00 |
| γ4 | -1.6054 | -1.98** |
| γ5 | 1.9957 | 2.64*** |
| γ6 | -1.3902 | -2.41** |
Persistence:
0.579
Half-life:
1 days
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