V-Lab
Zhejiang Jianfeng Group Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
32.46%
decreased by 0.07%
1 Week
32.40%
decreased by 0.13%
1 Month
32.24%
decreased by 0.29%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 06:39 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 28, 1993 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 13 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3900 | 5.02*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1073 | 8.43*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8412 | 48.80*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -0.0657 | -3.14*** |
| γ2 | 0.1424 | 4.36*** |
| γ3 | -0.1288 | -5.02*** |
| γ4 | 0.0680 | 2.94*** |
| γ5 | -0.0207 | -1.00 |
| γ6 | 0.0110 | 0.73 |
Persistence:
0.948
Half-life:
13 days
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