V-Lab
Zai Lab Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026
1 Day
1,111.81
decreased by 44.77
1 Week
1,061.20
decreased by 95.38
1 Month
1,065.20
decreased by 91.38
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:09 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 20, 2017 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 336 trading days (~1.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~336 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0070 | 6.20*** |
| αARCH | 0.1064 | 10.31*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8915 | 90.80*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0135 | -0.43 |
0.998
Persistence336d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0070 | 6.20*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1064 | 10.31*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8915 | 90.80*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0135 | -0.43 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
336 days
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