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Zai Lab Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026

1 Day

1,111.81

decreased by 44.77

1 Week

1,061.20

decreased by 95.38

1 Month

1,065.20

decreased by 91.38

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:09 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

09/29/2024

to

09/29/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Zai Lab Ltd ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 20, 2017 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 336 trading days (~1.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~336 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.0070
6.20***
αARCH0.1064
10.31***
βGARCH0.8915
90.80***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0135
-0.43

0.998

Persistence

336d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0070
6.20***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1064
10.31***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8915
90.80***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0135
-0.43

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

336 days