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High Templar Tech Limited Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026

1 Day

106,169.00

decreased by 2,714.20

1 Week

112,813.70

increased by 3,930.50

1 Month

104,437.63

decreased by 4,445.57

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:46 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

09/29/2024

to

09/29/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of High Templar Tech Limited ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 18, 2017 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 893 trading days (~3.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~893 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.9320
8.07***
αARCH0.1418
9.59***
βGARCH0.8574
59.27***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0087
0.15

0.999

Persistence

893d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9320
8.07***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1418
9.59***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8574
59.27***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0087
0.15

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

893 days