V-Lab
High Templar Tech Limited Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
99,104.34
decreased by 4,849.86
1 Week
100,252.17
decreased by 3,702.03
1 Month
78,444.53
decreased by 25,509.67
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 18, 2017 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 883 trading days (~3.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9325 | 8.07*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1427 | 9.58*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8565 | 58.82*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0064 | 0.10 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
883 days
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