V-Lab
High Templar Tech Limited Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026
1 Day
106,169.00
decreased by 2,714.20
1 Week
112,813.70
increased by 3,930.50
1 Month
104,437.63
decreased by 4,445.57
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:46 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 18, 2017 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 893 trading days (~3.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~893 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9320 | 8.07*** |
| αARCH | 0.1418 | 9.59*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8574 | 59.27*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0087 | 0.15 |
0.999
Persistence893d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9320 | 8.07*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1418 | 9.59*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8574 | 59.27*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0087 | 0.15 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
893 days
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