V-Lab
Azzuro Resources PLC Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026
1 Day
15,358,390.00
unchanged at 0.00
1 Week
15,511,022.50
increased by 152,632.50
1 Month
16,865,252.78
increased by 1,506,862.78
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 05:50 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 29, 2017 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 16 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.3861 | 1.87* |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.9584 | 16.82*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 4.3249 | 0.91 |
| γ2 | -11.9202 | -1.41 |
| γ3 | 14.5974 | 1.82* |
| γ4 | -21.7139 | -2.89*** |
| γ5 | 36.7421 | 5.02*** |
| γ6 | -44.0553 | -5.37*** |
| γ7 | 36.2770 | 4.30*** |
| γ8 | -19.8698 | -2.90*** |
| γ9 | 10.1424 | 1.53 |
| γ10 | -9.6416 | -1.67* |
0.958
Persistence16d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.3861 | 1.87* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9584 | 16.82*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 4.3249 | 0.91 |
| γ2 | -11.9202 | -1.41 |
| γ3 | 14.5974 | 1.82* |
| γ4 | -21.7139 | -2.89*** |
| γ5 | 36.7421 | 5.02*** |
| γ6 | -44.0553 | -5.37*** |
| γ7 | 36.2770 | 4.30*** |
| γ8 | -19.8698 | -2.90*** |
| γ9 | 10.1424 | 1.53 |
| γ10 | -9.6416 | -1.67* |
Persistence:
0.958
Half-life:
16 days
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