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Azzuro Resources PLC Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026

1 Day

15,358,390.00

unchanged at 0.00

1 Week

15,511,022.50

increased by 152,632.50

1 Month

16,865,252.78

increased by 1,506,862.78

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 05:50 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

09/28/2024

to

09/28/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Azzuro Resources PLC ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 29, 2017 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 16 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.3861
1.87*
αARCH0.0000
0.00
βGARCH0.9584
16.82***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ14.3249
0.91
γ2-11.9202
-1.41
γ314.5974
1.82*
γ4-21.7139
-2.89***
γ536.7421
5.02***
γ6-44.0553
-5.37***
γ736.2770
4.30***
γ8-19.8698
-2.90***
γ910.1424
1.53
γ10-9.6416
-1.67*

0.958

Persistence

16d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.3861
1.87*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9584
16.82***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ14.3249
0.91
γ2-11.9202
-1.41
γ314.5974
1.82*
γ4-21.7139
-2.89***
γ536.7421
5.02***
γ6-44.0553
-5.37***
γ736.2770
4.30***
γ8-19.8698
-2.90***
γ910.1424
1.53
γ10-9.6416
-1.67*

Persistence:

0.958

Half-life:

16 days