V-Lab
Azzuro Resources PLC Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
17,676,190.00
unchanged at 0.00
1 Week
18,042,440.00
increased by 366,250.00
1 Month
20,087,150.53
increased by 2,410,960.53
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 06:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 29, 2017 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 17 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4024 | 1.97** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9599 | 18.10*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 5.3641 | 1.10 |
| γ2 | -13.8823 | -1.58 |
| γ3 | 17.4394 | 2.12** |
| γ4 | -27.0781 | -3.72*** |
| γ5 | 43.6626 | 6.64*** |
| γ6 | -49.7991 | -6.38*** |
| γ7 | 39.8701 | 5.63*** |
| γ8 | -23.0538 | -4.44*** |
| γ9 | 15.1065 | 2.40** |
| γ10 | -15.3670 | -1.07 |
Persistence:
0.960
Half-life:
17 days
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