V-Lab
Sohu.com Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
22,723.26
decreased by 300.30
1 Week
24,208.20
increased by 1,184.64
1 Month
33,428.09
increased by 10,404.53
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:33 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 12, 2000 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 104 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7343 | 4.49*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2089 | 6.07*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7844 | 27.99*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | -2.6320 | -4.73*** |
| γ2 | 5.1026 | 5.85*** |
| γ3 | -3.6015 | -7.90*** |
| γ4 | 1.3890 | 5.60*** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
104 days
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