V-Lab
VEON Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
3,433.85
increased by 1.93
1 Week
3,269.72
decreased by 162.20
1 Month
3,746.87
increased by 314.95
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 15, 1996 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 69314 trading days (~275.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9906 | 2.92*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1402 | 0.33 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8598 | 2.00** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -0.0039 | -0.02 |
| γ2 | -0.0034 | -0.02 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
69314 days
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