Skip to main content
V-Lab

SES SA Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

4,042.89

increased by 27.75

1 Week

3,847.85

decreased by 167.29

1 Month

3,755.69

decreased by 259.45

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 08:15 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of SES SA ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 5, 2004 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 68 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.5889
9.26***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0558
9.84***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9341
135.95***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0093
7.28***

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

68 days