V-Lab
SES SA Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
4,042.89
increased by 27.75
1 Week
3,847.85
decreased by 167.29
1 Month
3,755.69
decreased by 259.45
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 08:15 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 5, 2004 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 68 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5889 | 9.26*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0558 | 9.84*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9341 | 135.95*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0093 | 7.28*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
68 days
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Other Spline ILLIQ Analyses on Depositary Receipts