V-Lab
36Kr Holdings Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026
1 Day
2,845,732.00
decreased by 134,232.00
1 Week
4,132,546.60
increased by 1,152,582.60
1 Month
3,843,989.52
increased by 864,025.52
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:07 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 8, 2019 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 21661 trading days (~86.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~21661 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.8939 | 5.40*** |
| αARCH | 0.2507 | 1.07 |
| βGARCH | 0.7493 | 3.19*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.2542 | -2.96*** |
1.000
Persistence21661d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8939 | 5.40*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2507 | 1.07 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7493 | 3.19*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.2542 | -2.96*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
21661 days
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