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36Kr Holdings Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026

1 Day

2,845,732.00

decreased by 134,232.00

1 Week

4,132,546.60

increased by 1,152,582.60

1 Month

3,843,989.52

increased by 864,025.52

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:07 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

09/29/2024

to

09/29/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of 36Kr Holdings Inc ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 8, 2019 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 21661 trading days (~86.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~21661 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.8939
5.40***
αARCH0.2507
1.07
βGARCH0.7493
3.19***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.2542
-2.96***

1.000

Persistence

21661d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8939
5.40***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2507
1.07
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7493
3.19***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.2542
-2.96***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

21661 days