V-Lab
36Kr Holdings Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
915,781.40
decreased by 227,583.60
1 Week
1,129,774.06
decreased by 13,590.94
1 Month
1,371,158.60
increased by 227,793.60
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:14 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 8, 2019 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 38508 trading days (~152.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8871 | 2.02** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2565 | 0.16 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7435 | 0.47 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.2915 | -2.56** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
38508 days
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