V-Lab
Kore Potash plc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
45,784,800,000.00
decreased by 3,026,170,000.00
1 Week
42,195,713,333.33
decreased by 6,615,256,666.67
1 Month
32,619,083,846.15
decreased by 16,191,886,153.85
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 06:07 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 21, 2005 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 2949 trading days (~11.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1273 | 3.75*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1248 | 4.90*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8749 | 34.26*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -1.4902 | -0.71 |
| γ2 | 5.2314 | 1.35 |
| γ3 | -10.6739 | -1.79* |
| γ4 | 14.9721 | 1.78* |
| γ5 | -10.0475 | -1.50 |
| γ6 | -0.6369 | -0.23 |
| γ7 | 5.6878 | 2.79*** |
| γ8 | -5.7837 | -2.57** |
| γ9 | 5.6923 | 2.26** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
2949 days
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