V-Lab
YPF SA Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
286.50
decreased by 34.17
1 Week
327.89
increased by 7.22
1 Month
325.08
increased by 4.41
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 29, 1993 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1061 trading days (~4.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9179 | 5.36*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1203 | 12.18*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8791 | 89.15*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | 0.1260 | 3.89*** |
| γ2 | -0.3075 | -3.80*** |
| γ3 | 0.3762 | 2.46** |
| γ4 | -0.4383 | -1.70* |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
1061 days
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