V-Lab
YPF SA ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026
1 Day
353.78
1 Week
322.57
1 Month
328.79
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:57 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 29, 1993 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 21 | |
| αARCH | 0.1165 | 7.13*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7395 | 21.90*** |
| γleverage | -0.1165 | -3.14*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 10.0000 | 1.17 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.3285 | 10.18*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.6715 | 22.89*** |
0.798
Persistence3d
Half-lifeILLIQ-MFMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1165 | 7.13*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7395 | 21.90*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1165 | -3.14*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 1.17 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.3285 | 10.18*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.6715 | 22.89*** |
Persistence:
0.798
Half-life:
3 days
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