V-Lab
YPF SA Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
389.94
1 Week
405.29
1 Month
395.44
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 11:13 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 29, 1993 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 70% more after negative returns
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 4.25*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0730 | 28.32*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9014 | 493.90*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0513 | 11.59*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
Other YPF SA Analyses
Other Asymmetric ILLIQ Analyses on Depositary Receipts