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Ternium SA Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

567.07

decreased by 22.25

1 Week

603.75

increased by 14.43

1 Month

604.75

increased by 15.43

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 11:10 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Ternium SA ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 1, 2006 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 157% more after negative returns

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
4.16***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0465
22.03***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9170
621.30***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0729
16.62***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1386294 days