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V-Lab

Ternium SA Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026

1 Day

493.11

decreased by 27.99

1 Week

545.46

increased by 24.36

1 Month

574.49

increased by 53.39

Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:51 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Ternium SA ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 1, 2006 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.994, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 116 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.3192
7.76***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1011
13.34***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8929
115.90***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0099
-3.00***

Persistence:

0.994

Half-life:

116 days