V-Lab
Ternium SA Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
493.11
decreased by 27.99
1 Week
545.46
increased by 24.36
1 Month
574.49
increased by 53.39
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:51 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 1, 2006 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 116 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3192 | 7.76*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1011 | 13.34*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8929 | 115.90*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0099 | -3.00*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
116 days
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