V-Lab
Ternium SA Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
523.96
decreased by 2.51
1 Week
553.30
increased by 26.83
1 Month
577.70
increased by 51.23
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 11:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 1, 2006 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 116 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3192 | 7.76*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1011 | 13.34*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8929 | 115.90*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0099 | -3.00*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
116 days
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