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Jumia Technologies AG Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026

1 Day

1,827.45

decreased by 389.96

1 Week

1,778.03

decreased by 439.38

1 Month

1,795.12

decreased by 422.29

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:47 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

09/29/2024

to

09/29/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Jumia Technologies AG ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 12, 2019 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 8664 trading days (~34.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~8664 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.9293
8.65***
αARCH0.1813
12.21***
βGARCH0.8187
55.23***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.1806
-2.14**

1.000

Persistence

8664d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9293
8.65***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1813
12.21***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8187
55.23***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.1806
-2.14**

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

8664 days