V-Lab
Jumia Technologies AG Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
3,168.42
increased by 702.04
1 Week
2,615.04
increased by 148.66
1 Month
2,952.24
increased by 485.86
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:45 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 12, 2019 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 9002 trading days (~35.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9288 | 8.64*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1828 | 12.09*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8171 | 54.13*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.1834 | -2.12** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
9002 days
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