V-Lab
Jumia Technologies AG Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026
1 Day
1,827.45
decreased by 389.96
1 Week
1,778.03
decreased by 439.38
1 Month
1,795.12
decreased by 422.29
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:47 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 12, 2019 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 8664 trading days (~34.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~8664 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9293 | 8.65*** |
| αARCH | 0.1813 | 12.21*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8187 | 55.23*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.1806 | -2.14** |
1.000
Persistence8664d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9293 | 8.65*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1813 | 12.21*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8187 | 55.23*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.1806 | -2.14** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
8664 days
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