Skip to main content
V-Lab

Jumia Technologies AG Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026

1 Day

3,168.42

increased by 702.04

1 Week

2,615.04

increased by 148.66

1 Month

2,952.24

increased by 485.86

Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:45 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Jumia Technologies AG ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 12, 2019 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 9002 trading days (~35.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9288
8.64***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1828
12.09***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8171
54.13***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.1834
-2.12**

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

9002 days