V-Lab
Bicycle Therapeutics PLC Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
15,787.47
decreased by 2.86
1 Week
15,461.23
decreased by 329.10
1 Month
15,523.22
decreased by 267.11
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:20 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 23, 2019 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 9762 trading days (~38.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9072 | 7.27*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1195 | 7.40*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8804 | 54.95*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -0.1883 | -0.61 |
| γ2 | 0.2469 | 0.67 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
9762 days
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