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Bicycle Therapeutics PLC Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026

1 Day

15,787.47

decreased by 2.86

1 Week

15,461.23

decreased by 329.10

1 Month

15,523.22

decreased by 267.11

Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:20 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

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graph of Bicycle Therapeutics PLC ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 23, 2019 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 9762 trading days (~38.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9072
7.27***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1195
7.40***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8804
54.95***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ1-0.1883
-0.61
γ20.2469
0.67

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

9762 days