How volatility evolves over time

How illiquidity evolves over time

{name} Model Equation

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Spline Coefficients

Value at Risk (VaR) estimates the maximum loss at a given confidence level. Expected Shortfall (ES) estimates the average loss beyond VaR.

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Param	Value	t-stat
mwindow	126
αARCH	0.0699	9.73***
βGARCH	0.9223	114.05***
γleverage	0.0085	0.97
λ₁tau intercept	10.0000	0.02
λ₂forecast adj.	0.0533	3.21***
λ₃tau persistence	0.9467	69.02***

Parameter	Value	t-statistic
m window Rolling window length	126
α ARCH Response to squared shocks	0.0699	9.73***
β GARCH Volatility persistence	0.9223	114.05***
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks	0.0085	0.97
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient	10.0000	0.02
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity	0.0533	3.21***
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence	0.9467	69.02***

V-Lab

Bicycle Therapeutics PLC ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis

Date Range:

News Impact Curve

Illiquidity Forecast

Parameter Estimates

Other Bicycle Therapeutics PLC Analyses