V-Lab
36Kr Holdings Inc ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
1,021,857.00
1 Week
1,282,098.80
1 Month
1,571,869.14
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:14 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 8, 2019 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 5658 trading days (~22.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2841 | 46.02*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7706 | 210.88*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1095 | -13.83*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 1,988,890.1191 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
5658 days
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