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Bicycle Therapeutics PLC Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026

1 Day

14,063.02

increased by 281.97

1 Week

13,758.72

decreased by 22.33

1 Month

14,007.10

increased by 226.05

Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:20 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Bicycle Therapeutics PLC ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 23, 2019 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): illiquidity shocks do not decay and the long-run level is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.

Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 29% more after negative returns

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
0.73
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0851
13.10***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9025
249.99***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0248
2.84***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

-