V-Lab
SES SA Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
4,107.19
increased by 83.77
1 Week
3,772.53
decreased by 250.89
1 Month
3,560.31
decreased by 463.11
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 08:15 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 5, 2004 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 252 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 225% more after negative returns
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 4.0142 | 6.98*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0216 | 13.27*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9514 | 787.56*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0486 | 14.98*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
252 days
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