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SES SA Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

4,107.19

increased by 83.77

1 Week

3,772.53

decreased by 250.89

1 Month

3,560.31

decreased by 463.11

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 08:15 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of SES SA ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 5, 2004 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 252 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 225% more after negative returns

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

4.0142
6.98***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0216
13.27***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9514
787.56***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0486
14.98***

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

252 days