V-Lab
SES SA Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026
1 Day
5,182.80
increased by 621.59
1 Week
4,545.45
decreased by 15.76
1 Month
4,193.64
decreased by 367.57
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 06:35 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 5, 2004 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 256 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 227% more after negative returns
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~256 daysAsymmetry: Illiquidity rises 227% more after negative returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 3.9727 | 1.73* |
| αARCH | 0.0214 | 3.33*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9516 | 197.95*** |
| γleverage | 0.0486 | 3.81*** |
0.997
Persistence256d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.9727 | 1.73* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0214 | 3.33*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9516 | 197.95*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0486 | 3.81*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
256 days
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