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SES SA Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026

1 Day

5,182.80

increased by 621.59

1 Week

4,545.45

decreased by 15.76

1 Month

4,193.64

decreased by 367.57

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 06:35 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

09/28/2024

to

09/28/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of SES SA ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 5, 2004 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 256 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 227% more after negative returns

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~256 daysAsymmetry: Illiquidity rises 227% more after negative returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst3.9727
1.73*
αARCH0.0214
3.33***
βGARCH0.9516
197.95***
γleverage0.0486
3.81***

0.997

Persistence

256d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

3.9727
1.73*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0214
3.33***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9516
197.95***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0486
3.81***

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

256 days