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V-Lab

Jumia Technologies AG Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

2,105.62

decreased by 181.09

1 Week

2,252.57

decreased by 34.14

1 Month

2,783.58

increased by 496.87

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 10:49 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Jumia Technologies AG ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 12, 2019 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 225 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 184% more after negative returns

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.8825
3.49***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0675
15.67***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8673
295.81***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1242
19.62***

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

225 days