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Central Puerto SA Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026

1 Day

5,777.28

decreased by 118.65

1 Week

6,418.49

increased by 522.56

1 Month

7,470.08

increased by 1,574.15

Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:39 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Central Puerto SA ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 2, 2018 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): illiquidity shocks do not decay and the long-run level is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.

Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 112% more after negative returns

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
0.49
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0605
13.31***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9055
371.88***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0680
9.05***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

-