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V-Lab

Central Puerto SA Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026

1 Day

4,629.54

increased by 298.48

1 Week

4,742.54

increased by 411.48

1 Month

5,983.38

increased by 1,652.32

Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:39 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Central Puerto SA ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 2, 2018 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 62 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0332
7.67***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1131
9.10***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8757
64.60***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0988
-4.69***

Persistence:

0.989

Half-life:

62 days