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Central Puerto SA Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026

1 Day

8,365.68

decreased by 694.00

1 Week

6,901.38

decreased by 2,158.30

1 Month

5,478.17

decreased by 3,581.51

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:41 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

09/29/2024

to

09/29/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Central Puerto SA ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 2, 2018 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 66 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.0504
7.73***
αARCH0.1114
9.14***
βGARCH0.8781
66.47***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0944
-4.49***

0.989

Persistence

66d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0504
7.73***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1114
9.14***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8781
66.47***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0944
-4.49***

Persistence:

0.989

Half-life:

66 days