V-Lab
Central Puerto SA Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
4,629.54
increased by 298.48
1 Week
4,742.54
increased by 411.48
1 Month
5,983.38
increased by 1,652.32
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:39 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 2, 2018 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 62 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0332 | 7.67*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1131 | 9.10*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8757 | 64.60*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0988 | -4.69*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
62 days
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