V-Lab
NIO Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
172.04
increased by 7.69
1 Week
172.23
increased by 7.88
1 Month
171.92
increased by 7.57
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 10:58 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 12, 2018 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 400 trading days (~1.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9845 | 7.18*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1286 | 11.77*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8697 | 81.88*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0250 | 0.64 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
400 days
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