V-Lab
Tenaris SA Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026
1 Day
213.02
increased by 0.99
1 Week
218.89
increased by 6.86
1 Month
254.42
increased by 42.39
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 05:49 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 28, 2021 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 43 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9232 | 3.84*** |
| αARCH | 0.0497 | 2.94*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9345 | 51.98*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0040 | 0.03 |
0.984
Persistence43d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9232 | 3.84*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0497 | 2.94*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9345 | 51.98*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0040 | 0.03 |
Persistence:
0.984
Half-life:
43 days
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