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ZTO Express Cayman Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

304.90

decreased by 28.19

1 Week

314.20

decreased by 18.89

1 Month

303.06

decreased by 30.03

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 11:13 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of ZTO Express Cayman Inc ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 27, 2016 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 78 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2354
5.74***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0903
9.73***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9009
92.22***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0187
-1.53

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

78 days