V-Lab
ZTO Express Cayman Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
304.90
decreased by 28.19
1 Week
314.20
decreased by 18.89
1 Month
303.06
decreased by 30.03
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 11:13 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 27, 2016 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 78 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2354 | 5.74*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0903 | 9.73*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9009 | 92.22*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0187 | -1.53 |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
78 days
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