V-Lab
Jiayin Group Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026
1 Day
782,315.30
increased by 227,781.90
1 Week
448,669.82
decreased by 105,863.58
1 Month
341,128.68
decreased by 213,404.72
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:26 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 10, 2019 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 297 trading days (~1.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~297 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2735 | 3.64*** |
| αARCH | 0.2708 | 14.79*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7268 | 39.72*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0498 | -0.68 |
0.998
Persistence297d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2735 | 3.64*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2708 | 14.79*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7268 | 39.72*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0498 | -0.68 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
297 days
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