V-Lab
James Hardie Industries PLC Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
255.87
decreased by 23.73
1 Week
263.46
decreased by 16.14
1 Month
353.86
increased by 74.26
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 06:13 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 77016 trading days (~305.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1418 | 0.06 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0919 | 0.01 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9081 | 0.15 |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | -0.2630 | -0.03 |
| γ2 | 0.3396 | 0.03 |
| γ3 | -0.0949 | -0.02 |
| γ4 | 0.0244 | 0.01 |
| γ5 | -0.0047 | -0.01 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
77016 days
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