V-Lab
Van Lanschot Kempen NV Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
2,565.95
increased by 85.74
1 Week
2,620.20
increased by 139.99
1 Month
3,102.54
increased by 622.33
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 01:24 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 22, 2018 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 63 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2623 | 7.58*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0977 | 8.95*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8914 | 73.36*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0547 | -3.15*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
63 days
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