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V-Lab

Van Lanschot Kempen NV Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

2,565.95

increased by 85.74

1 Week

2,620.20

increased by 139.99

1 Month

3,102.54

increased by 622.33

Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 01:24 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Van Lanschot Kempen NV ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 22, 2018 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 63 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2623
7.58***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0977
8.95***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8914
73.36***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0547
-3.15***

Persistence:

0.989

Half-life:

63 days