V-Lab
Pacific Lime and Cement Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
41,406.33
decreased by 12,983.42
1 Week
55,587.94
increased by 1,198.19
1 Month
103,063.51
increased by 48,673.76
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 06:14 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 21, 2017 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 12 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1258 | 0.55 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2910 | 2.21** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6508 | 6.31*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -6.1101 | -0.83 |
| γ2 | 10.6937 | 1.08 |
| γ3 | -9.2929 | -2.15** |
| γ4 | 13.7118 | 2.60*** |
| γ5 | -22.2644 | -2.54** |
| γ6 | 18.1074 | 1.81* |
| γ7 | -5.7909 | -0.70 |
| γ8 | 5.4119 | 0.85 |
| γ9 | -9.3549 | -1.61 |
| γ10 | 1.7760 | 0.26 |
Persistence:
0.942
Half-life:
12 days
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