V-Lab
Zai Lab Ltd Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026
1 Day
1,072.24
decreased by 60.20
1 Week
1,035.66
decreased by 96.78
1 Month
1,023.67
decreased by 108.77
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:09 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 20, 2017 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 357 trading days (~1.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 87% more after negative returns
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~357 daysAsymmetry: Illiquidity rises 87% more after negative returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 5.0000 | 1.31 |
| αARCH | 0.0649 | 4.16*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9050 | 97.27*** |
| γleverage | 0.0563 | 2.04** |
0.998
Persistence357d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 1.31 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0649 | 4.16*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9050 | 97.27*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0563 | 2.04** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
357 days
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