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Zai Lab Ltd Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026

1 Day

1,072.24

decreased by 60.20

1 Week

1,035.66

decreased by 96.78

1 Month

1,023.67

decreased by 108.77

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:09 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

09/29/2024

to

09/29/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Zai Lab Ltd ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 20, 2017 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 357 trading days (~1.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 87% more after negative returns

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~357 daysAsymmetry: Illiquidity rises 87% more after negative returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst5.0000
1.31
αARCH0.0649
4.16***
βGARCH0.9050
97.27***
γleverage0.0563
2.04**

0.998

Persistence

357d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
1.31
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0649
4.16***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9050
97.27***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0563
2.04**

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

357 days