V-Lab
Equinor ASA Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026
1 Day
136.22
increased by 2.97
1 Week
138.89
increased by 5.64
1 Month
142.56
increased by 9.31
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:44 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 15, 2001 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 3150 trading days (~12.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 124% more after negative returns
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~3150 daysAsymmetry: Illiquidity rises 124% more after negative returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.7921 | 1.83* |
| αARCH | 0.0361 | 6.05*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9412 | 220.63*** |
| γleverage | 0.0449 | 4.21*** |
1.000
Persistence3150d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7921 | 1.83* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0361 | 6.05*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9412 | 220.63*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0449 | 4.21*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
3150 days
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