V-Lab
Equinor ASA ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
142.64
1 Week
147.51
1 Month
153.01
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 15, 2001 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 632 trading days (~2.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 15% more after negative returns
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 56 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0584 | 28.09*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9362 | 794.04*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0086 | 2.34** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.02 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9995 | 2,498.78*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
632 days
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