V-Lab
Tencent Music Entertainment Group Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026
1 Day
250.66
increased by 30.74
1 Week
235.88
increased by 15.96
1 Month
231.31
increased by 11.39
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:55 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 12, 2018 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 173 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~173 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0771 | 7.16*** |
| αARCH | 0.0549 | 7.35*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9411 | 120.36*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0329 | -1.42 |
0.996
Persistence173d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0771 | 7.16*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0549 | 7.35*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9411 | 120.36*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0329 | -1.42 |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
173 days
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