Millrose Properties Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
288.40
decreased by 9.49
1 Week
282.43
decreased by 15.46
1 Month
302.16
increased by 4.27
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:08 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 5, 2025 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 42 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0405 | 6.29*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0605 | 2.77*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9232 | 37.27*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -1.0444 | -1.72* |
Persistence:
0.984
Half-life:
42 days
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