V-Lab
ACRES Commercial Realty Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026
1 Day
53,135.61
decreased by 4,794.92
1 Week
50,741.82
decreased by 7,188.71
1 Month
48,161.89
decreased by 9,768.64
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 10:13 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 7, 2006 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 193 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1720 | 5.19*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1395 | 15.37*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8570 | 97.94*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0139 | 3.77*** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
193 days
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