V-Lab
ACRES Commercial Realty Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
21,189.08
decreased by 2,667.24
1 Week
25,323.18
increased by 1,466.86
1 Month
31,205.74
increased by 7,349.42
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 11:06 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 7, 2006 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 237 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~237 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.1278 | 5.00*** |
| αARCH | 0.1395 | 15.52*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8575 | 98.86*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0121 | 2.84*** |
0.997
Persistence237d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1278 | 5.00*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1395 | 15.52*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8575 | 98.86*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0121 | 2.84*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
237 days
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