ACRES Commercial Realty Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
49,720.87
decreased by 5,379.77
1 Week
60,504.82
increased by 5,404.18
1 Month
57,128.45
increased by 2,027.81
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 10:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 7, 2006 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 187 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1810 | 5.22*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1401 | 15.39*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8562 | 97.49*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0142 | 3.88*** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
187 days
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