United States Dollar Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 30th, 2026
1 Day
5.45%
increased by 0.23%
1 Week
5.53%
increased by 0.31%
1 Month
5.83%
increased by 0.61%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 06:43 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 22, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 52 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 52 days.
σ
AGARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 52-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0034 | 7.42*** |
| αARCH | 0.0611 | 18.83*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9257 | 328.61*** |
| γleverage | 0.0139 | 0.48 |
0.987
Persistence52d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0034 | 7.42*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0611 | 18.83*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9257 | 328.61*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0139 | 0.48 |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
52 days
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