Chilean Peso AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 15th, 2026
1 Day
9.32%
increased by 0.05%
1 Week
9.35%
increased by 0.08%
1 Month
9.45%
increased by 0.18%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 14, 2026 at 08:13 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 31, 1992 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 419 trading days (~1.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
AGARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~419 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0015 | 3.52*** |
| αARCH | 0.0500 | 7.09*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9483 | 140.12*** |
| γleverage | -0.0348 | -0.50 |
0.998
Persistence419d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0015 | 3.52*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0500 | 7.09*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9483 | 140.12*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0348 | -0.50 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
419 days
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