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Chilean Peso AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 15th, 2026

1 Day

9.32%

increased by 0.05%

1 Week

9.35%

increased by 0.08%

1 Month

9.45%

increased by 0.18%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 14, 2026 at 08:13 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/14/2024

to

10/14/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Chilean Peso AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 31, 1992 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 419 trading days (~1.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~419 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0015
3.52***
αARCH0.0500
7.09***
βGARCH0.9483
140.12***
γleverage-0.0348
-0.50

0.998

Persistence

419d

Half-life
σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0015
3.52***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0500
7.09***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9483
140.12***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0348
-0.50

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

419 days