CBOE Energy ETF Volatility Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Inactive
Last recorded values (Monday, February 14th, 2022):
1 Day
86.51%
1 Week
84.62%
1 Month
81.90%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 2, 2026 at 03:48 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 16, 2011 to Feb 11, 2022Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
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Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.1856 | 7.99*** |
| αARCH | 0.1527 | 4.82*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6588 | 10.92*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 0.0325 | 1.91* |
| γ2 | -0.0602 | -1.87* |
0.812
Persistence3d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1856 | 7.99*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1527 | 4.82*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6588 | 10.92*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 0.0325 | 1.91* |
| γ2 | -0.0602 | -1.87* |
Persistence:
0.812
Half-life:
3 days
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