V-Lab
Visa Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
21.96%
decreased by 0.91%
1 Week
22.82%
decreased by 0.05%
1 Month
24.80%
increased by 1.93%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:39 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 19, 2008 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 61 | |
| αARCH | 0.0076 | 1.13 |
| βGARCH | 0.8068 | 34.56*** |
| γleverage | 0.2156 | 7.59*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0317 | 1.19 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0248 | 1.36 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9630 | 34.54*** |
0.922
Persistence9d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 61 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0076 | 1.13 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8068 | 34.56*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2156 | 7.59*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0317 | 1.19 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0248 | 1.36 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9630 | 34.54*** |
Persistence:
0.922
Half-life:
9 days
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