V-Lab
Seatrium Limited Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
31.00%
decreased by 0.50%
1 Week
31.48%
decreased by 0.02%
1 Month
32.82%
increased by 1.32%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 12:28 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 11, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 13 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3367 | 3.31*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0914 | 7.54*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8583 | 46.54*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.0025 | -0.05 |
| γ2 | 0.0655 | 0.87 |
| γ3 | -0.1435 | -3.10*** |
| γ4 | 0.1515 | 4.96*** |
| γ5 | -0.1589 | -2.79*** |
| γ6 | 0.1806 | 2.81*** |
| γ7 | -0.1023 | -1.38 |
| γ8 | -0.0426 | -0.58 |
| γ9 | 0.0769 | 1.63 |
Persistence:
0.950
Half-life:
13 days
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