V-Lab
S&P GSCI Nickel Spot Index EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
19.51%
increased by 0.19%
1 Week
19.86%
increased by 0.54%
1 Month
21.28%
increased by 1.96%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:54 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 8, 1993 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 55 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 55 days.
σ
EGARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 55-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0235 | 4.24*** |
| αARCH | 0.1129 | 5.71*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9874 | 315.07*** |
| γleverage | 0.0158 | 1.15 |
0.987
Persistence55d
Half-lifeσ
EGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0235 | 4.24*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1129 | 5.71*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9874 | 315.07*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0158 | 1.15 |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
55 days
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