V-Lab
Sam Holdings Corporation Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
16.28%
decreased by 0.86%
1 Week
17.47%
increased by 0.33%
1 Month
19.66%
increased by 2.52%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 08:32 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 21, 2007 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 6 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0223 | 4.76*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1676 | 8.77*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7186 | 21.17*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.4961 | -2.42** |
| γ2 | 0.8058 | 2.68*** |
| γ3 | -0.4063 | -2.25** |
| γ4 | -0.0594 | -0.38 |
| γ5 | 0.3770 | 2.35** |
| γ6 | -0.4538 | -2.07** |
| γ7 | 0.7502 | 2.75*** |
| γ8 | -1.1069 | -4.35*** |
| γ9 | 0.8847 | 3.75*** |
| γ10 | -0.5627 | -1.79* |
Persistence:
0.886
Half-life:
6 days
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