V-Lab
Prism Medico & Pharmacy Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
37.82%
decreased by 1.15%
1 Week
42.53%
increased by 3.56%
1 Month
57.63%
increased by 18.66%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 09:30 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 15, 2012 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 86643 trading days (~343.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2133 | 0.02 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3508 | 0.01 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6492 | 0.02 |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -12.8092 | -0.04 |
| γ2 | 23.7163 | 0.03 |
| γ3 | -15.9601 | -0.02 |
| γ4 | 5.6172 | 0.01 |
| γ5 | -1.0906 | 0.00 |
| γ6 | 1.1783 | 0.01 |
| γ7 | -1.1567 | -0.02 |
| γ8 | 0.6821 | 0.03 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
86643 days
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