V-Lab
Neogen Corp Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
56.84%
decreased by 1.89%
1 Week
59.21%
increased by 0.48%
1 Month
63.58%
increased by 4.85%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:28 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9668 | 8.17*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1016 | 6.81*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7777 | 24.68*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.1696 | -4.32*** |
| γ2 | 0.2425 | 3.92*** |
| γ3 | -0.1015 | -2.49** |
| γ4 | 0.0028 | 0.08 |
| γ5 | 0.0867 | 2.59*** |
| γ6 | -0.1016 | -2.57** |
| γ7 | 0.0676 | 1.50 |
| γ8 | -0.0463 | -1.29 |
| γ9 | 0.0791 | 2.02** |
| γ10 | -0.1083 | -3.05*** |
Persistence:
0.879
Half-life:
5 days
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