V-Lab
Nexi S.P.A. Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
9.65%
decreased by 6.57%
1 Week
9.42%
decreased by 6.80%
1 Month
8.56%
decreased by 7.66%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 08:30 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 6, 2019 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 28 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 30.5920 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.6243 | |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3509 |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 5,329.3812 | |
| γ2 | -7,763.6775 | |
| γ3 | 2,493.2351 | |
| γ4 | 434.2761 | |
| γ5 | -670.0637 | |
| γ6 | 428.9095 | |
| γ7 | -669.3696 | |
| γ8 | 477.9596 | |
| γ9 | -64.6525 | |
| γ10 | 114.1509 |
Persistence:
0.975
Half-life:
28 days
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